Patrick Mahomes has never had to rebuild anything. In Kansas City, rebuilding has always been someone else’s problem. But after the Chiefs went from 15 wins in 2024 to just six last season, the questions are no longer hypothetical. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes Kansas City is positioned to bounce back in 2026 — and his analysis points to something specific: the Chiefs’ historically bad record in close games last season, and what happens if that simply normalizes.
Why did the Kansas City Chiefs struggle so much in close games in 2025?
No team in NFL history had swung this wildly in one-score games from one season to the next. Kansas City went 10-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer in 2024. Last season, they went 1-9. That 18-game swing is the largest ever recorded.What makes it stranger is that the Chiefs were not actually playing poorly. Before Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL against the Chargers in Week 15, Kansas City had outscored opponents by 60 points and ranked eighth in DVOA. That exactly matched where they finished the prior regular season. The team had not fallen apart. The close games just stopped going their way.Patrick Mahomes had built a 43-17 career record in one-score contests entering 2025. Even with him healthy for most of the year, the Chiefs went 1-7 in those situations. Barnwell’s argument is straightforward: that kind of performance is unlikely to repeat. “Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs,” he wrote. “And winning about 65% of the time — which is Mahomes’ new career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer — might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West.“
What changes did the Chiefs make to improve for the 2026 NFL season ?
The offseason was not quiet. Kansas City overhauled its secondary after losing Trent McDuffie to the Rams, Jaylen Watson to Los Angeles in free agency and Bryan Cook to Cincinnati. They responded by drafting cornerback Mansoor Delane in the top 10 and bringing L’Jarius Sneed back to the roster.The offense got attention too. Running back Kenneth Walker III arrived to fix what was the league’s worst explosive play rate on the ground. The offensive line added Josh Simmons at left tackle. The defensive front brought in Khyiris Tonga, Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas.The bigger question is Mahomes himself. He is returning from the most serious injury of his career. Surgery on his left knee in December raises real concerns about his ability to extend plays with his legs, at least early in the season. Barnwell flagged that specifically. A version of Patrick Mahomes who cannot improvise the same way changes what Kansas City can do in tight situations — which is precisely the category that cost them the most in 2025.Their schedule will not make things easier. Kansas City faces the AFC East and NFC West in 2026, with road trips to Buffalo, Los Angeles and Seattle on the docket. ESPN’s Football Power Index rates it around league average and 14th easiest overall. Not brutal. Not a gift.Barnwell still expects improvement. “I don’t think there will be much pushback against the idea that the Chiefs will improve in 2026,” he wrote. Kansas City’s path back likely does not require anything dramatic. It mostly requires Mahomes to be Mahomes again in the moments that matter most.