The ensuing assembly elections is a doordie battle for the commanders-in-chief of CPM, Congress and BJP in Kerala. Be it chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, opposition leader V D Satheesan or BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, this election could completely alter the trajectory of their political careers.Satheesan was the first to admit this predicament, albeit in another context. He said he would go into political hibernation if the UDF does not wrest power from the Left. His affirmation of this statement on more occasions than one has indeed helped invigorate the UDF rank and file. A closer look at the recent history of power-shift in Congress party in Kerala proves that Satheesan was only making a realistic statement, even though it could be mistaken for hyperbole.Whether Satheesan will become the chief minister even if UDF wins the election, is secondary. But he will find it impossible to retain his role as opposition leader if the front loses a third straight assembly polls. Even if he refuses to take up responsibility in such an eventuality, the reversal is sure to haunt him time and time again.For Vijayan, nothing short of a victory would keep him kicking in the political domain. He has been wielding absolute power for the last 30 years, both in the party and the govt, and he visibly enjoys it. “It would be unfathomable for a leader like Pinarayi Vijayan to think of being an opposition leader in the assembly. Nothing less than the position of chief minister could help him stay put in active politics,” said social critic and political analyst Damodar Prasad. The manner in which Vijayan tries to steer clear his way for a third straight win of LDF underscores how serious he is about retaining power. Vijayan follows a unique method as he asserts his leadership, both in the CPM and in the govt. He remains reticent for long and breaks silence only when he is sure the circumstances are favourable for him. This strategy is shaped more by his political hunch than anything else.The CPM did not use the picture of Vijayan in the local body elections in 2020, which took place after the hullabaloo over the Sabarimala women’s entry issue. But the LDF garnered a surprise win and it maintained that winning streak by retaining power in the 2021 assembly elections. By the time Kerala went for the last assembly election, Vijayan became a permanent prime-time fixture on television screens with his daily Covid updates.The CPM campaign strategists must now be trying to replicate the same effect by raising Vijayan’s hoardings and banners across Kerala and giving live interviews to TV channels on mutually agreed topics. But the move makes the 80-year-old solely responsible for the electoral outcome as far as CPM and LDF are concerned. Though a debacle will be devastating for Vijayan, Satheesan and, to an extent, Chandrasekhar, it will be politically fatal for Vijayan, said political observer and author J Prabhash.Chandrasekhar tries to build a narrative that BJP is contesting the elections to form a govt, but even the party’s rank and file refuses to believe it. If Chandrasekhar has to claim any credit for BJP winning Thiruvananthapuram corporation, where it replaced UDF as the major opposition in 2015, he will have to win at least a couple of seats for the party this time. In the current context, nobody in the BJP will be ready to share responsibility in case of a complete defeat. The assembly elections thus put to test Chandrasekhar’s new strategy — of speaking more development and less politics — to create a space for BJP to emerge as a third alternative force without exuding the colour of Sanghparivar politics.